Author Topic: Maj 2010.  (Read 10079 times)

Madjo

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Maj 2010.
« on: April 30, 2010, 00:51:17 »
Ec crta za 6-7 maj prostran ciklon Nikolu.Nastaje iz Sredozemlja i kreće na srednju Evropu i dalje na sjever kontinenta.
Viđećemo što kaže naredne dane,može lako da odleti još dalje od nas



Offline Admin

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2010, 12:40:07 »
Izdgleda da 4., a posebno 5.5. ima šansi da Tmax u Podgorici premaši 30 stepeni.
Bio bi to prvi tropski dan u 2010.
Mislim da je apsolutni rekord 100 tropskih dana u jednoj godini, ali morao bih da provjerim.

Madjo

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2010, 13:23:50 »
Da, ali nakon tih vrućina bi uslijedilo osvježenje, po ecmwf-u

Prostrana depresija sa više centara sniženog pritiska

Postoji mogućnost da se,nakon prelaska ciklona, stvori nešto i u Đenovskom zalivu, što bi bilo "opasnije" za naše krajeve.

Znači, od polovine sledeće sedmice kišovito,izgleda.A od početka one druge sedmice nestaje blok na Atlantiku i polako dolaze vrućine.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2010, 13:26:09 by Madjo »

Offline Kimi

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2010, 14:22:07 »
Uhhh jedva čekam da izađemo iz toplog sektora ciklona,baš je nezdravo vreme  :o  >:(

Od sutra pa narednih bar 7  dana crtaju se nestabilnosti,pa će biti kiše,a i pljuskova sa grmljavinom.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2010, 14:24:09 by Kimi »

Madjo

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2010, 10:39:18 »
Izgleda da nas neće ni okrznuti ciklon jer ode direktno na sjever kontinenta !



Pogledajte, nula po visini dolazi čak do Španije.

Zima se ne predaje na sjeveru Evrope i Britaniji,kod nas će isto malo zaladit.


Offline Cirius

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2010, 19:29:56 »
Kolicina padavina mozda ne bude velika, sudeci po nekim modelima ..  mada se ni od one benigne doline nije ocekivalo mnogo, a visinski ciklon je takodje tumarao blizu Alpa i malo istocno, pa je na kraju bila prilicno "plodna" ..   mogli bi ga ispratiti u Ciklonima,  u svakom slucaju,  imace konkretan uticaj na tip vremena kod nas najmanje par dana. 
Radujem se ovom osvjezenju,  ali cini mi se da ce sjutra i preksjutra biti dosta  "tesko"  vrijeme i sparina,  jer ce temp biti visoke,  a oblacnost ce se povecavati.  Najprijatnije ce biti u mjestima koja prva dobiju kisu,  da spusti temperaturu u prizemlju.
~ ... must be lost to explore the unknown ~

Madjo

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2010, 22:11:09 »
Slažem se.Noćas je ec primakao ciklon ka nama, i biće nešto kiše,osvježenje sigurno.

A situacija par dana nakon Nikole, gajnc nov ciklon sa Tunisa-pogledajte kartu,dosta dubok i ide "ispod" nas put Grčke.U tom momentu smo između dvije vatre. ;D

Offline Admin

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2010, 07:30:42 »
Kratkotrajan pljusak u PG oko 7 sati, no ostatak dana bi trebao da bude suv, iako svje\iji u odnosu na prethodne.

Offline bole

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2010, 11:18:52 »
Ja mu se opste nisam nadao :)
Kad sam Krenuo na posao AR 11.6 C  >:D svjeze bjese
Pala mi je na um Vilina Voda i Cupovi  kolko li je tamo bilo jutros u 7h
« Last Edit: May 07, 2010, 11:21:22 by bole »

Madjo

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2010, 22:00:18 »
Ako je vjerovati ecmwf-u, ozbiljnija promjena vremena se crta za polovinu mjeseca.Dobar ciklon i fino zahlađenje.

Madjo

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2010, 22:55:42 »
Sad nešto gledam,izgleda da će biti dobre kiše u subotu a u neđelju i kiša i osjetan pad temperature,za moje krajeve maximalna dnevna do 9°C.Nebih se začudio ako bi zabijelilo planine po sjeveru.

Offline vanja

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #11 on: May 12, 2010, 03:05:02 »
Sad nešto gledam,izgleda da će biti dobre kiše u subotu a u neđelju i kiša i osjetan pad temperature,za moje krajeve maximalna dnevna do 9°C.Nebih se začudio ako bi zabijelilo planine po sjeveru.


e to volim da cujem a i vidim :D

Offline bole

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #12 on: May 12, 2010, 12:53:51 »
Zabljak i Bjelasica dobija u Nedelju ccccc

Offline Cirius

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #13 on: May 12, 2010, 19:46:06 »
Simpaticno ovo zahladjenje od nedelje,  dobar greben na jugozapadu kontinenta garantuje konkretno osvjezenje sa sjeverozapada ovdje    ;D   ima izgleda i da potraje nekoliko dana ...   Ciklon koji mu prethodi mozemo pribiljeziti vec nocas ili sjutra.   Hehe ..  nista ljepse od ciklona sa dobrom  "pratnjom"    :D
~ ... must be lost to explore the unknown ~

Madjo

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #14 on: May 12, 2010, 23:28:33 »
Dobar ciklon, ne gine nam fina kiša.Osveženja će biti, iako zadnjih dana nije bilo prevruće.Kolega cirus,pribilježi ga u Ciklone sjutra ;)    баба Његосава :D
Ovo je konačno jedna "normalna" godina,u smislu laganog prelaska iz jednog u drugo godišnje doba.Kako je fino,lagano,prešlo iz zime u proljeće.A prošlih godina bi iz jakni i džempera prešli u kratke rukave u dva dana,šćaše nas pre$eć ka na trupac.

Offline Cirius

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #15 on: May 13, 2010, 00:10:08 »
Ovo je konačno jedna "normalna" godina,u smislu laganog prelaska iz jednog u drugo godišnje doba.Kako je fino,lagano,prešlo iz zime u proljeće.
Jeste,  ove godine ide bas postepeno,  "po knjizi"    :)   ...  opet,  ne sumnjam da nas ceka ubitacno ljeto.
Baba Njegosavu ostavljam tebi,  nemam nesto vremena,  a ni srca,  da ti preuzmem  "kumce"    :D
~ ... must be lost to explore the unknown ~

Madjo

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #16 on: May 13, 2010, 00:55:32 »
 :D A znači nećeš ti ove babe jel  ;D
Po yr.no se crtaju baš lijepe količine padavina za subotu i neđelju,moglo bi s ovim padavinama se doći do mjesečnog prosjeka.Aladin takođe crta preko 30 litara za 6-satni termin u subotu,skoro čitava CG u "crveno"

Offline Kimi

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #17 on: May 13, 2010, 17:49:34 »
Biće svega kad hladan front dođe na ovakve padavine


Madjo

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #18 on: May 13, 2010, 23:58:01 »
Zanimljivo,yr.no povećao padavine.Dosta kiše crta podlovćenskom kraju,a izgleda da će bit i jakog juga.

Karta govori da je zeru primaknut centar ciklona ka nama u odnosu na prošle izlaze.Ovo je dosta dubok ciklon,biće tu svačega.Čekam sjutrašnje izlaze,pa ga najavljujem.


Offline Kimi

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #19 on: May 14, 2010, 00:23:37 »
GFS 18Z još povećao padavine  :o :o  :o Auuuuu  :o :o Pa biće poplava ponovo
 ::)

Offline Cirius

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #20 on: May 14, 2010, 16:36:25 »
Party time   ;D

"An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is probable over S-Italy, the S-Adriatic Sea and adjacent areas after midnight with all kind of severe possible, including flash flooding.

... S-Italy, parts of Sicily, S-Adriatic Sea, N-Ionian Sea, parts of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, S-Croatia and Montenegro ...

A progressive trough approaches from the western Mediterranean during the evening/night hours with robust geopotential height falls spreading rapidly towards the east. The main high-level support for initiation will be a strong wave, ejecting out of the base of the neutral tilted trough, placed just east of the Balearic Islands at 00Z (15th May). This wave crosses Sicily and most parts of central/south Italy from roughly 21Z onwards with potent UVV maximum lifting northeastwards thereafter. Initiation over the southern parts of the level 2 area may be more conditional in nature, as best forcing grazes the area to the north.

At 18Z onwards, atmopshere destabilizes rapidly with strong WAA regime at 900-800hPa and attendant increasing mid-level lapse rates (next to EML layer spreading northeastwards), so a vast area with increasing MUCAPE evolves over Sicily north/northeastwards. Betimes, surface based CAPE is on an increase over the Tyrrhenian Sea and the central Adriatic Sea after 21Z, along the cyclonic shear side of the mid-/high-level jet with GFS/WRF pointing to 400-800 J/kg SBCAPE, maximized offshore/along coasts.

As the upper trough gradually acquires a more negative tilt throughout the night hours, already intense hyperbaroclinic zone continues to get more intense with a phasing polar/subtropical jet. 1-6km shear of 30-60m/s, 1-8km shear topping out at 50m/s, 0-3km shear of 20-35m/s and SRH-3 values of 300-600m^2/s^2 overspread the area from the SW during the evening/night hours and are more than adequate for strong and long-lived mid-level mesocyclones. Final degree of potential MUCAPE magnitude may be re-analyzed in respect of shear parameters being too extreme for updrafts.
Models agree well in the rapid development of a surface depression, moving off the coast of NE Algeria/N-Tunisia with a movement to the NNE, later straight northwards over central Italy/central Adriatic Sea The final strength still remains a bit unclear due to model discrepancies with the data-limted area over N-Africa. In any case, strengthening depression assists in a rapid ageostrophic deflection from the background flow in the lowest 1-3km, increasing LL speed/directional shear to 10-20m/s / 150-300 m^2/s^2, maximized along the east coast of the Adriatic Sea and over S-Italy.

Current scenario of the expected event foresees a gradual increase of elevated supercells over most parts of the level 2 area during the late afternoon hours. Overlap of steep lapse rates, strong directional shear and extreme speed shear point to a large hail threat with any thunderstorm with significant hail also well possible in long-lived updrafts/mid-level mesocyclones. Thunderstorm coverage and intensity becomes more widespread/intense after 21Z over the Tyrrhenian Sea , where surface based convection may form, spreading rapidly east/northeastwards. This convection may pose a risk for significant hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes and a long-lived and significant tornado can't be excluded, given rapid storm motion and LCLs at or below 600m. Those storms haste towards the central Adriatic Sea, Bosnia and Herzegovina/Montenegro and S-Croatia after midnight.

In response to the deepening surface depression, a 20-30 m/s LLJ evolves ahead of the eastward shifting cold front, covering the Ionian Sea and the S-Adriatic Sea until 06Z. All ingredients are present for excessive rainfall over N-Albania, Montenegro, S-Croatia and parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as 12-13 g/kg 1 km ML mixing ratios advect northwards beneath incoming intense UVV maximum and high-level divergence. Combined with topographic lift and aforementioned LLJ magnitude, a backbuilding MCS may evolve with training storm activity.

No level 3 was yet introduced, due to the uncertainty in respect of the final magnitude of SBCAPE build-up. However, forecast soundings/windgrams reveal a tornado-prone kinematic environment overlapping with modest CAPE, so this region definitively has to be monitored.

This event continues well after 06 Z. "



« Last Edit: May 14, 2010, 16:50:22 by cirus »
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Offline Xenia

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #21 on: May 14, 2010, 21:49:49 »
Ja sam se uplasila citajuci ovo i nocas necu ni da spavam nego cu da gledam filmove!  ;D
Mada, ja mislim da kod nas nevrijeme nece stici tokom noci, nego tek u ranim jutarnjim satima.

Madjo

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #22 on: May 14, 2010, 22:01:00 »
Da, u jutarnjim satima nevrijeme.Biće zanimljivo za pratit,no ja ći tada bit u Kotor...kad nema Frake,taman da vam ja dočaram kako je u Boku kad pada kiša ;D

Offline Fraka

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #23 on: May 15, 2010, 00:03:59 »
Ja sam nazalost u Beograd, a odje nije nesto zanimljivo.. jedino sto pada je ovaj cvijet ili sto je ovo (ja mislim od topole) i moguvam rec da me poludje, samo nos cesem po vas dan..  :D A bice feste ovih dana, moram opet vadit ovu debelu robu za ponedjeljak :)

Madjo

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Re: Maj 2010.
« Reply #24 on: May 15, 2010, 00:18:51 »
U lokaciji ti piše Kotor ;) 
Pogledajte kakva glibava kiša će panut sjutra.